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Minister Nabiulina: Russia`s GDP will rise 4.5 – 5 percent in 2011 |
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 [17.7.10]
Next year Russia's GDP growth will be revised upwards to between 4.5% and 5% from 4% now, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiulina said Friday citing the latest economic data. This is reported by the Voice of Russia.
Russia's current economic rebound is good news also to western financial lenders, such as the World Bank, which last month upped its Russia GDP forecast to 4.5%. The IMF's forecast is equally upbeat.
This optimism is fully shared by Iosif Diskin with the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. The financial situation is improving fast and we have every reason to believe that this economic optimism will eventually translate into a budgetary one as well, so that we have a economically healthy country able to afford an equally healthy budget, Diskin says.
Energy and Finance Institute's President Leonid Grigoryev is less upbeat though arguing that the overall GDP growth is not yet big enough to inspire talk about "positive trends".
Pleasant as it may seem, we should not overrate this particular fact and the growth rate we have today. Because development-wise I don't see any real changes happening here... Well, this will help create some new jobs, no doubt about that, but this is not something I call a radical change... Besides, 4.5% or even 5% compared with last year still is minus 4% from what we had before the crisis struck.
Auditors look on the bright side though saying the GDP growth is pretty well grounded with the banks giving out more loans in the past couple of months, albeit most of them consumer, not industrial ones.
Secondly, industrial output in on the rise, even though the construction sector keeps going down. Unemployment is more than 15% down from where it was in February.
Overdependence of oil and other raw materials exports remains a big problem though, and this has much to do with the Economic Ministry's upbeat GDP growth forecasts for the coming years.
[ (Source: ”The Voice of Russia”) russia-media.RU Murmansk & Shtokman News / FLAIT Murmansk ]
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